Over the past week the pending implementation of U.S. tariffs on the rest of the world has taken shape through higher-than-expected tariffs, and this has shocked the financial markets, leading to weakness across most asset classes and regions.
This is a typical ‘risk-off’ event where there is indiscriminate selling of equities, real estate, credit and other riskier assets. Conversely, safe havens such as government bonds are sought out to protect wealth in the near term.
The uncertainty brought about by the tariffs raises several questions, and in the absence of answers in the near term, investors tend to react by selling aggressively, a trend we’re now seeing globally, with equity markets down anywhere from 10-20% at this point.
Our focus at times like this is on ensuring we are prepared to take action on client portfolios where opportunities arise. This is a challenging time to be making decisions, particularly when considering the almost infinite complexity of impacts which can happen at the granular company level, and the unknowable cause and effect outcomes which we may still see where countries either choose to retaliate (e.g. China) or negotiate. Once this phase is over there is likely to be some direction we can get comfort with, however it is likely there are material opportunities while this uncertainty persists.
This means our frame of reference is guided by two key outcomes:
- Equity assets have fallen materially, at what stage do we buy up and where is it funded from?
- There are likely to be winners and losers (regions and sectors) – so when buying equity, which type has the best payoff?
There are a few key questions which need answering before we will reach a new normal and the longer-term winners from this event are clear.
- Are the tariffs real, or just a negotiating tactic? During Trump’s prior term he often used an aggressive first move to set the terms of trade in his favour, only to settle at a less extreme level. This is largely what the market was banking on prior to the announcement of the new tariff structures on “Liberation Day” – 2 April 2025.
- Will the U.S. win? Or does the ‘Rest of the World’ close ranks and push for greater levels of trade between each other? Key to the U.S. ‘winning’ would be their ability to compete effectively with global providers who have tended to be the lower cost producers. Tariffs in the short run can provide some protection to your domestic industries, but ultimately you need to be able to compete economically to maintain high levels of growth – you can’t just internalise and focus on your home market. In addition you need a global audience to grow into, which may be less of a welcoming environment in the foreseeable future.
- Do we end up with stagflation? (high inflation but low growth) – this is the most penal investment environment to consider. With existing trends towards reshoring of production activities (typically away from China) and global inflation rates already on the high side, this is not an inconsequential risk. Tariffs have the short-term effect of pushing up prices which naturally lowers demand. A recession could also ensue.
When markets are weak there is often the opportunity to reposition into better quality investments with higher future growth levels to maximise returns looking ahead. We have been living in a highly skewed environment for some time where the U.S.’s ‘exceptionalism’ boosted their company earnings and related valuations to multi-decade highs. This at a time when Trump is saying the U.S. hasn’t had a fair deal. Yet their global multi-nationals have been using considerable scale and capital to exploit world markets. So while the domestic home industries like manufacturing and agriculture have suffered due to unequal tariff measures, a lot of wealth has been created by U.S. businesses operating in global markets. Will their trajectory change as the domestic industries benefit, and we see a reversal of prior decades where stock market growth was captured within the likes of Amazon, Facebook and Google?
What will count in the end is whether or not you have a competitive advantage in a particular industry, how strong your balance sheet is, and what your growth opportunities are. Wealth is created primarily by company earnings growth, and being able to capture this more efficiently is an exciting prospect.
Then it comes down to what price we need to pay as investors. Market declines are never easy to endure, yet it is also not a time to panic but one to be aware of what is likely to be an expanded set of investment opportunities.
With this in mind, we are looking at:
- Opportunities to upweight equity from a relatively low starting position;
- Where clients are phasing into equity from cash, to ensure we use this to switch cash to equity;
- Where we can reposition within equity so that we can get a better forward looking return trade-off;
- Potential for fund selection changes should there be managers better positioned looking ahead.
As always we avoid knee-jerk reactions and base our decisions on qualitative fund research and a well-structured asset allocation framework to guide decisions. Any changes we propose will be considered from a materiality perspective, and we may well implement phased changes depending on how this event plays out. Where clients are taxed, lower market levels also allows for more efficient net of tax rebalancing.
As an investment team we will be meeting more frequently over the coming weeks to ensure we have as much information as possible and that we are ready to take action when necessary. Our team will be in touch with updates as we progress.
Article written by: Fundhouse – Discretionary Fund Manager
